The typical timeline after launch
Measured on new releases followed for their first 24 months, 60.6 percent of them open with a launch discount. Leaving out the first two weeks, the first discount arrives a median of 55 days after release, and half price a median of 325 days after release. The first cut comes fast and shallow; reaching half takes most of the first year.
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Releases inside the price history window that completed 24 months on sale (research/steam-discounts) · n = 1240 · measured 2026-08-06
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Releases inside the price history window that completed 24 months on sale (research/steam-discounts), first 14 days excluded · n = 1240 · measured 2026-08-06
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Releases inside the price history window that completed 24 months on sale (research/steam-discounts) · n = 1240 · measured 2026-08-06
Over a full year the cadence settles. The median game in the same pool runs 8 separate discounts a year, and half of all games take a cut of 65 percent or deeper at some point in a twelve month window. That rhythm is close to the seasonal Steam sales plus a couple of store events, which suggests most games follow the calendar rather than a plan of their own.
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Games on sale for at least twelve months, from 2025-08-06 to 2026-08-06 (research/steam-discounts), distinct discount episodes · n = 6295 · measured 2026-08-06
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Games on sale for at least twelve months, from 2025-08-06 to 2026-08-06 (research/steam-discounts), deepest discount in the window · n = 6295 · measured 2026-08-06
These are norms among games with comparables, not rules. They are useful as a reference for what players have learned to expect, and as a warning about what moving much faster signals.
The rules that fix the earliest dates
The launch discount is the only discount you can run in launch week. It runs for 7 to 14 days and cannot exceed 40%1, and it has to be configured before release. Valve suggests keeping it modest and warns that rushing into a 50% or 75% discount weeks after launch sends a bad message to the customers who bought at full price1.
After that, a product cannot be discounted within 30 days of another discount, except during the seasonal sales, which carry no cooldown and do not count against the cooldown of other discounts1. A discount runs between 1 and 14 days and between 10% and 95% off1. Raising your price in any currency blocks discounting for the next 30 days1, so a price you plan to fix later costs you a discount cycle.
Seasonal sales are open to any game released at least 30 days before the sale starts, with a discount submitted through the Discount Management page2. Valve publishes the dates well ahead: the Winter Sale runs from 17 December 2026 to 4 January 2027, and the Summer Sale 2027 from 24 June to 8 July2.
What a discount actually does
Using monthly reviews as a stand-in for sales, a month with no discount runs at 0.87 of its own recent baseline. That is the ordinary decay of a catalogue title. A month with a deep discount runs at 1.00. A discount does not launch a game upward; it arrests the fall.
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Game months with a baseline of at least 5 reviews, reviews standing in for sales (research/discount-effect), months with no discount · n = 346913 · measured 2026-08-07
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Game months with a baseline of at least 5 reviews, reviews standing in for sales (research/discount-effect), discounts averaging 74.7 percent off · n = 346913 · measured 2026-08-07
It works for most games rather than a lucky few: comparing each game against itself, 83 percent of games do better in their own discount months than in their quiet ones.
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Games compared against themselves, discount months against quiet months (research/discount-effect) · n = 3181 · measured 2026-08-07
There is also no payback period. Two months after a discount the game sits at 0.94, against 0.92 for comparable windows with no discount at all, so whatever the sale brought in did not come out of the following quarter.
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Deep discounts after a clean three month run-up, two months later, against the pre-discount baseline (research/discount-effect) · n = 479 · measured 2026-08-07
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Three month windows of the same shape with no discount at all (research/discount-effect) · n = 144730 · measured 2026-08-07
How deep to go
Cutting deeper does lift more, but not by enough. Going from an average of about 38% off to about 75% off moves copies only slightly, and revenue lands at 0.43 of what the shallower cut earned. To break even, the deeper cut would need 146.2 percent more copies, a margin no variant of the measurement comes close to.
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Deep band averaging 74.7 percent off against a mid band averaging 37.7 percent off (research/discount-effect) · n = 110363 · measured 2026-08-07
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Copies the deep band would need to match the revenue of the mid band (research/discount-effect) · n = 110363 · measured 2026-08-07
So keep the deepest discounts for what they are good at: reach, a spot on a sale page, converting wishlists that have been waiting. Any discount of 20% or more triggers an email to everyone who wishlisted the game3, which is the cheapest way to make that conversion happen. A shallow cut already crosses that line.
How often to discount
Frequency matters more than timing. Almost every deep discount is a repeat: a deep cut that follows another within 1 to 3 months lands at 1.00 of its baseline, level with the months around it, while the same cut after a gap of 4 to 6 months lands at 1.26. Part of that gradient is the measure itself, since a game that discounts constantly is compared against its own discounted months, so read its size with care and its direction with confidence.
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Discounts of 60 percent or deeper, 1 to 3 months after the previous discount (research/discount-effect) · n = 61753 · measured 2026-08-07
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Discounts of 60 percent or deeper, 4 to 6 months after the previous discount (research/discount-effect) · n = 61753 · measured 2026-08-07
Season matters less than people think. Comparing each game against itself, games that discounted both in summer and outside it did worse in summer 50 percent of the time, which is a coin flip. Pick the sale that fits your spacing rather than the one with the biggest name.
MarketYourIndie curated pool · Games with a discount of 60 percent or deeper both inside and outside June and July, each against itself (research/discount-effect) · n = 2678 · measured 2026-08-07
How to plan the discounts for an indie game on Steam
- Set a launch discount before release. Configure a modest launch discount before your release date, since it cannot be added later. It runs 7 to 14 days and is capped at 40%.
- Hold the price through launch. Avoid a deep discount in the weeks after launch. The first real sale for a typical indie game arrives around two months in.
- Plan around the seasonal sales. Mark the seasonal sales Valve publishes in advance. They carry no 30 day cooldown, so they fit between your own discounts.
- Use shallow cuts for revenue. Keep most discounts moderate. At least 20% triggers the wishlist email, and deeper cuts sell slightly more copies for less money.
- Space out the deep discounts. Save deep cuts for reach and leave several months between them, since repeated deep discounts land flat.
- Never raise the price right before a sale. A price increase in any currency blocks discounts for 30 days, so settle prices before you schedule a sale.
